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養老金隱性債務超83萬億 分析稱應降低給付金額 2014年03月20日

       “統賬結合”模式下,如何確保養老保險的財務可持續性一直是公眾關注的焦點。近日有專家精算發現,如果將隱性債務定義為精算應計負債減去社會統籌賬戶基金余額,那么截至2012年末這一數字已經超過83萬億元。
       養老金隱性債務超83萬億 分析稱應降低給付金額
       目前公眾對中國養老保險財務的討論,大多集中于養老金“空賬”、“缺口”等問題,也就是說,一般是針對個人賬戶下空賬金額的計算,或揭示當期繳費收入不抵支出的統計,或估算轉軌成本所造成的隱性債務。對未來收支缺口的預測,較少采用科學方法的精算理論。
       對此,中國社會科學院研究生院博士研究人員魏吉漳認為,一套完善的社會保障制度,在提供社會福利和社會救助的前提下,仍需兼具社會保險的功能,運用一般精算準則及精算模型,精算公平保費,確保收支平衡,才能健全社會保障制度的穩定性及持續性。
       魏吉漳從精算角度對養老保險的財務作了評估研究,測算得出的數字不容樂觀。“以2012年12月31日為衡量日,依加入年齡成本法計算得之精算統籌賬戶應計負債為83萬億,約為2012年G D P的160%。”魏吉漳認為,對社會統籌賬戶而言,高達83萬億的隱性債務,將在未來的現金收支中逐漸顯現在未來的財務缺口上。
       不過,這并不意味著養老金一定將陷入“萬劫不復”的境地。魏吉漳計算發現,養老保險最佳提撥率為21.6%,而目前實際繳費率為20%,兩者相近。因此,只要未來制度的運作和精算假設一致,財務的持續性是可確保的。
       但在魏吉漳看來,若要制度未來運行無虞,有幾個指標必須達成:首先養老保險制度覆蓋率必須持續增加。其次,必須提存適足的基金準備。最后,必須解決隱性債務,方式包括凍結隱性債務另做財務規劃,提高繳費率,降低給付金額,提高基金投資回報率,延長退休年齡等。

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